Investment Analysis Of China'S Textile And Garment Industry In 2012

< p > < strong > 12 years, the plate will rise first and then suppress, and then fall down, /strong /strong > < /p >.

< p > up to the beginning of the year, the textile "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com "> clothing < /a > plate falls in the last third of all plates, and the second half is the first to decline.

We think: 1, terminal failure is the root cause of the problem: the main reason is the decline of real consumption ability of residents and the cost performance of products is not as good as before.

2, the poor performance of orders and the appearance of inventory pressure are the fuse.

3, the downward trend of performance accelerated the decline in share prices.

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< p > strong > 13 years is still hard to be optimistic, structural opportunities look good in the second half of the year < /strong > /p >

< p > plate PE and PB are close to the bottom of 08 years, but this fall reflects more investors' concerns about the business mode of the industry, and the downside of future performance may be whether the valuation is still cautious.

At present, China has formed M consumption. Under the background of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, luxury and low-end consumption are gradually eroding the space of the mid-range brands, and the future operation of the high-end brands will face severe challenges.

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< p > the extensive expansion mode is difficult to continue in the future, and the optimization of single store efficiency is imminent. The valuation < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > premium < /a > will also be gradually pferred to the company with high performance and continuity, rather than the high growth in the current period.

Next year, the textile industry will be better than Brand Company in terms of performance growth trend, mainly driven by low base this year, but the industry fundamentals are still poor.

In terms of structural opportunities, the risk in the first half of the year is greater. In the second half of the year, investors anticipate more clearly, and the stock pressure is expected to ease. The optimistic forecast plate opportunity first appeared in the three quarter.

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< p > investment logic: looking for smaller companies with relatively low operating pressure and the first sub sectors that are expected to go out of the trough. We think that the pressure of search business is relatively small, mainly due to the low scale of the company's revenue, small shop base and good cash flow situation. In the 12 years since the beginning of the year, Southern China has used large stores with low discount rate to reduce the risk of inventory, and the price has always been lower than the US bond and Semir 20-30% to maintain competitiveness.

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< p > distributor < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > net interest rate < /a > has declined from a vertical view. It is still better than its competitors in the horizontal view, and needs to pay more attention to the sale speed of terminal products in the future.

The domestic textile industry is expected to take the lead in going out of the trough. Before the pressure of overloading and the sharp drop in real estate control and strict demand, the Chinese listed companies will suffer a heavy blow.

Subjectively, the company still emphasizes on opening stores, grasping sales and grabbing shares. It is not known that in the last two years, the industry downturn should vigorously adjust the management ideas and get out of the differentiated route.

In the past 13 years, the deterioration trend of financial data of home textile companies has improved slightly. Closing the invalid shops and optimizing the efficiency of single stores will also take the right road. If the real estate sales data have a continuous good trend, the configuration can be considered in the second half of the year.

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< p > < strong > risk warning < /strong > < /p >

< p > Terminal recovery is lower than expected; inventory digestion is lower than expected; orders will be lower than expected; single store optimization is lower than expected.

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