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SF And EMS Open Air Express Competition

2014/1/22 11:39:00 66

Shun Feng EMS Aviation Contend For War Express Logistics

At the end of August, Wang Wei always refused to invest in foreign capital. He was known as "no money" known as "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "Shun Feng" /a "big boss", and suddenly sold no more than 25% of the shares. He came to Suzhou yuan he holdings, China Merchants, CITIC capital and other financial predators nearly 8 billion yuan of strategic investment. Although since 2013, domestic express companies have been frequently linked to capital. In February, Li Ting capital, Peng Kang investment and Phoenix capital three institutions invested 200 million yuan to invest in full peak delivery. In May, a strong capital company such as Sequoia capital invested 30 million US dollars in the stock exchange. In June, Lenovo controlled the whole day express, capital restructuring and the establishment of express delivery, but compared with the big hand of SF, the financing dynamics of these express companies and the strategic layout of investors were too small CASE. The only comparison is the A share IPO plan, which was launched in 2012 by EMS. 
 it is said that the investment organization of SF is investing valuations of SF by 25 times price earnings ratio. You know, the world express industry leader - the Federal Express Group (NYSE) has a dynamic price earnings ratio of 22.04 times. From this point of view, the financial investment institutions, known for their sagacious calculation, are confident of SF and Wang Wei. 
 a sole proprietorship enterprise that persisted in seeking stability, seeking solid and low-key management for twenty years, suddenly opened the door to PE, which has always been respectful and far away, and invested 8 billion yuan in massive investment. This masterstroke naturally indicates that Wang Wei, the chief executive of Shun Feng, is going to play a big game. As for his ambitious strategic plan and the next disruptive market initiatives, he wants to analyze all the great immortals and senior officials. The author also throws up some humble opinions, with a view to friendly exchanges and much advice. 
 1. Shun Feng's ambition 
P no doubt that SF will buy planes, and will buy all cargo planes in a large volume and quickly. This is mainly based on the development needs of SF's core business. Since 2003, SF has taken full advantage of the speed of aviation and "light assets" operation of charter flights and renting passenger aircraft abdominal compartment resources, and quickly established the "fast" brand advantage in the industry. In 2012, 843 of the 1671 domestic early flights were used by SF, more than 50%, and the late flights of SF also used nearly 40% (although the largest number of flights per day), they did not meet the timeliness effect of the "night delivery". At present, SF used the storage resources of more than 2000 flights to carry out the operation of express delivery, forming a certain scale monopoly advantage. 
In order to further enhance this core competitive advantage and expand its autonomy, SF set up its own cargo airline in 2009. As of November 2013, SF has 13 own full cargo aircraft, and has also rented 19 full cargo aircraft, and has 32 fleet models. In 2011, the transport volume of Shun Feng's air express reached 445 thousand tons, and over 600 thousand tons in 2012. According to the CAAC's "12th Five-Year plan", China's air cargo transport volume was 9 million tons in 2015 and 6 million tons in China. That is to say, whether SF is judging from the experience of its own development or judging from the blueprint of national planning, air express (freight) has vast space for development. 
P, a private enterprise with no background, no resources and no strength, can only win such a great attention in the air express (freight) field, to a large extent, on the incompetence or inaction of its competitors. As we all know, the traditional enterprises with competitive strength and potential in this field are mostly narrow in vision, conservative in thinking, extensive in operation and slow in response. The corroboration data is that in 2011, there were only 99 freighters in the country. In other words, air express (freight) has been lagging behind in China. 
Less than P, "Shun Feng" is to seize this opportune moment, with a forward-looking look and a consistently low-key attitude, quietly exert force, and continuously expand its fleet size for four years in a row. In 2011 alone, 5 aircraft were purchased and put into operation. According to the internal planning of SF, SF will have 69 full cargo aircraft by 2015. And Shun Feng's ambition is far more than that. According to their research, it is predicted that the whole industry will surpass 300 planes in 2021, of which 196 will be owned by Shun Feng, with freight volume exceeding 6 million tons. If realized, SF is expected to become a super champion in China's air express (freight) 2/3 market share. 
 in the face of the "future map of the future scope of aviation logistics" thrown out by the tough opponent of Shun Lu, a group of those who are engaged in or interested in aviation logistics, all of them are shocked. Among them, there is a grand uncle of Huang Shu, who is restless. That is the express mail with the background of the national team. China Post Express has always regarded Shun Feng as its biggest competitor. When China Post Express was first established in 2010, the annual revenue of SF express was only half that. Its competitive pressure and sense of crisis are not very large. But during the three or four years (2010-2013) of China Post Express, it has been preparing for the listing for a period of time. In the meantime, SF has made a lot of efforts, and many of them have taken the lead. China Post Express has gained many advantages from the strength of the state. It has been fully overtaken by SF in terms of operation scale, network layout, air transport capacity and logistics assets. 
 July 2013, due to many problems, the CSRC "suspended review" more than a year's courier delivery, again through the trial meeting, returned to the listing sequence, in December 27th, announced the strategic adjustment and voluntarily withdraw from the IPO. Such facts and lessons, rather than the fact that China Post Express has been thrown into the capital market, is more likely to be the fierce competition and rapid changes in the market in recent years. It has gained insight: in the era of the Internet, the real big guy is not to expand the scale, but to change the amount of money that is "simple". Instead, it is necessary to have a qualitative change in the strategic thinking and management structure. I believe that China Post Express voluntarily withdraw from IPO is just a strategic feint of "retreat in order to advance". If there is no accident, the next two or three years, China Post Express will be returned to the capital market once again, becoming the first listed express company in China. It is still a big probability event. Here is the strong support of the national will and the strategic demand for the adjustment of the industry pattern. In any case, the "Yu Liang" controversy in the express delivery industry is inevitable. China Post Express vows to stabilize the position of the industry leader. Shun Feng is highly ambitious. Surpassing China Post Express is only a key node in its grand strategy. It has more ambitious ideals and ambitions. {page_break} 
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 in fact, China Post Express also deeply understands that the strategic commanding point of occupying the reality and future express market is to snatch "air supremacy". Since the opening of the postal routes in 2001, the core assets, core values and core competitiveness of China Post Express are the air transport capacity of 18 full cargo aircraft and their own distribution network. But now, the volume and scale of the cargo controlled by Shun Feng has not only surpassed it, but also far behind the future strategic planning. According to its long-term development strategic plan, the fleet size of the fleet in 2015 was only 46, less than 23 of SF's planning. 
Less than P, it is more urgent for China Post to express that the 18 cargo planes currently owned are basically financing leases and operating leases. Their control capability and flight efficiency are far less than that of Shun Feng itself. In this regard, courier delivery has been suddenly awakened under the strong competitive pressure of SF. In April 2013, China Post Express bought five second-hand Boeing 737 from Shandong Uni Airways Corporation at an estimated value of about 167 million yuan, with an average of less than 34 million per frame. It is worth mentioning that, according to the plan of the China Post Express prospectus, nearly 7 hundred million of the funds collected for the purchase of aircraft are nearly 10 billion. That is to say, in theory, China Post Express also may buy 15 similar second-hand aircraft, and then change passengers. 
 in addition, there is another trend in China Post Express, which is that the cargo planes that it owned before (including the newly purchased 5 planes) were mainly Boeing 737. But in August, 4 Boeing 757 cargo charter agreements were signed with the cargo air China. Correspondingly, SF currently owns 7 Boeing 757 freighters. 
 what needs to be explained is that compared with the 737 model, the 757 type aircraft carries a larger volume (737 models can be equipped with 13 pallets, and the 757 type can be equipped with 15 packing panels). The voyage is far away, and it has more scale effect. What's more, Boeing 757 has excellent flight performance and is suitable for various complex climatic and geographical conditions. Therefore, the general route network will choose Boeing 757 to travel to the hotter and more highly developed destinations, such as the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, or Mexico City, which has high altitude in Latin America. For the successful experience of the international express company, Boeing 757 is also the most economical and applicable choice cargo aircraft. For example, the fleet structure of FedEx is based on Boeing 757 fleet and will continue in the future. Taking into account the vastness of China's geographical area and the complexity of its geographical environment, as well as the layout of global ambitions, SF's choice of Boeing 757 as the main model is naturally much better than that of China Post Express. 
 of course, in this principle, express mail is not understood, but on the one hand, it is too stingy because of its vision and pattern. It is thought that more than a dozen Boeing 737 is enough to meet the business needs, not to mention a small abacus, because the cost of training and operation of the same type of aircraft and pilots is naturally much lower than that of a few hybrid models; on the other hand, the operation mode of the leasing type makes it very restrained in the selection of the models. To put it more plainly, the partners' Airlines, because they also have their own air cargo business, will naturally leave more economical cargo planes to their own use. 
 because due to the mature modification period of the general passenger changing products from 75 days to 100 days, the 5 second-hand aircraft purchased by China Post Express in April 2013 should be delivered in the end of 2014. The 18 Boeing 737 and the new 4 Boeing 757 have been counted. At that time, all the cargo planes owned by China Post Express will reach 27 scale, which is very close to the current fleet of SF 30. It can be predicted that in the near future, both domestic and international routes, China Post Express will launch a fierce "air battle" with Shun Feng to compete for the position and market share of the air express (freight) field. {page_break} 
 three, Shun Feng's future conjecture .
 it may be that the China Post Express, with the advantage of the national team and the market impact and competition pressure brought by the huge potential energy, has accelerated or accelerated the huge financing completed by the end of August, and has made sufficient capital reserves for the upcoming contending for hegemony. It can be guessed (combined with the development plan of SF), that in the next two years, SF will buy 30 or more planes, thereby widening the competition gap with China Post. From the point of view of economy and operability, Shun Feng may also adopt a similar strategy of China Post Express, which will buy large numbers of decommissioned Boeing 737-300 (a total of 106 domestic) and 757-200 (56 domestic) passenger aircraft from domestic airlines, and then refit the "passenger to goods". According to the 30 calculation, the purchase cost of aircraft and the purchase fee of air material (including modification fee) should be added to not less than 1 billion 400 million yuan. 
 as for the recently updated Internet based SF UAV, I think it is only a small test project for SF to encourage young employees to be innovative. At least in the next five years, they do not have the practical significance of any commercial competition level. Why do I say so? There are two reasons. The first is the SF's UAV project, which is likely to be inspired and stimulated by the recently released Amazon's "Prime Air" UAV project. And Amazon's pilot project, according to its CEO Jeff Bezos, will be released in 4 to 5 years. So, in terms of R & D strength and management capabilities, it is impossible for Shun Feng to launch such a vanguard and risky business project earlier than Amazon. 
 two, even if the UAV technology is feasible and cost controllable, it is also not applicable to the Chinese market. A little bit of knowledge of the United States knows that the family units of American community planning are basically open buildings with a single courtyard. The UAV delivers to customers, or there is a front lawn or backyard garden for landing. And what about China's anti-theft windows, high-rise Matchbox closed buildings, and how to send unmanned aerial vehicles? And who can guarantee that no one will use bamboo poles or slingshots to hit them? This point is also understood by SF, so it explains that it will not directly face customers, but it will distribute between SF EXPRESS's different network points, mainly to deliver goods to remote areas where manpower distribution is difficult and slow. Such a statement is also very far fetched. Based on the limited capacity and harsh take-off and landing conditions of UAVs, how much the distribution, operation cost and time cost of outlets are too wasteful. The distribution to the partial transportation area is also unrealistic. According to the current technical conditions, the UAV in 2 kilometers radius within 30 minutes in time delivery is considered its commercial value. If too remote, such as more than 100 kilometers, UAV control is effective, whether the air traffic control is allowed to be a big problem. Therefore, the SF's UAV project can only be regarded as a boyish trial and error on Wang Wei's commercial adventure road. 
 in terms of business mode innovation, the author thinks that in addition to buying the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" and the aircraft < /a >, the SF can consider buying a group of helicopters, relying on some channel networks, management bases and talent advantages of SF to build a fast response special aviation fleet. 
 due to the difficulty of opening up in China's high altitude area and the lagging nature of the planning, Shun Feng, the express mail delivery or the expansion plan of all cargo planes may be subject to artificial or policy restrictions in the future. Comparatively speaking, the difficulty of opening the mid and low altitude airspace in China is smaller and the market space will be larger. If we build a helicopter air detachment with a certain scale and network layout as early as possible, we will carry out the "special express (logistics)" business between regions in East China, Southern China and other cities which are densely developed, economically developed and concentrated. 
 now that a business executive is willing to transport a bowl of wonton with a helicopter, then think of those special emergency and confidentiality government documents and business letters, such as valuable items (gold, jade, jewellery, cultural relics, small luxury goods, etc.), special medical drugs (including transplant organs, etc.), high-end electronic products, special commercial samples, precision instruments, auto parts and other industries, will there be a greater potential market and demand? Of course, this helicopter team can also carry out diversified and extensive rental business and customized services in business reception, festival celebrations, advertising promotion, private wedding, tourism and aerial photography. 
 high-end, fast and safe is the core competitiveness of SF express. If we do not take advantage of this opportunity to expand this special business, it will be a pity to seize the opportunity of the market and enrich the product mix. What needs to be explained is that since July 1, 2010, SF has launched "Shun Feng te an" to provide high quality and safe express service for customers with high value goods (20 thousand yuan or less, 100 thousand yuan or less, and July 2013 guarantee limit up to 200 thousand yuan). Shun Feng does not provide higher value goods and easy to destroy valuables express, mainly due to the traditional land transportation process of uncontrollable risk. But if there is a helicopter service and allows (or must) customers to deliver, the high-end express market is still worth considering. 
 it can be concluded that if we build such a helicopter team, we will be strongly supported by the local government. Because in emergencies, it can also become a leveraging tool and efficiency platform for the government to launch emergency command and public disaster relief. If Shun Feng goes further, the use of this team's natural focusing power (helicopters circling over the city is probably a rare publicity carrier this year). Regular or timely public spirited activities or publicity will surely enhance the reputation and reputation of SF.