Polyester Inventory Increased To 12-31 Days, And The Price Decline Of Polyester Filament Expanded

Sometimes the sun is shining, sometimes the clouds are gathering. The polyester market in the recent stage is like this changeable weather. The sound of price increase not long ago seems to have not dissipated, but the sound of price decline has come and gone.

Last week, driven by the sharp rise in international oil prices and other favorable factors, PTA futures rose strongly on the 10th and 11th. It was originally thought that polyester filament could also take this opportunity to usher in a wave of "weekend market" again.

However, when we were caught off guard, on the 12th, the PTA futures market turned sharply downward, and the spot changed with the intraday plunge; The reversion expected by the polyester filament market also dissipated.

1、 Without the guidance of "weekend market", the quotation of polyester filament fell by 200-400 yuan/ton

Due to the lack of guidance of "weekend market", the polyester filament market has been depressed in recent days. On the 15th, the quotation center of some polyester manufacturers was reduced sporadically; However, by the 16th, the price focus of mainstream manufacturers had fallen sharply, and the price decline of various products had expanded, with a drop of 200-400 yuan/ton.

16 day specific price

Jiangsu direction: polyester quotation of a major factory in Jiangsu fell 300-500 yuan/ton; The polyester POY quotation of Taicang No. 1 Factory fell by 200-300 yuan/ton; The FDY of a factory in Wuxi fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the deal was negotiated.

Tongxiang direction: Tongxiang one mainstream big factory polyester promotion discount of 200-300 yuan/ton depending on the volume.

Xiao Shao's direction: the FDY of the first factory in Shaoxing dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the deal was negotiated; The POY of Xiaoshan No. 1 Factory fell by 200-400 yuan/ton.

2、 The market transaction atmosphere was light, and the production and sales of polyester dropped to 2-40%

In addition to price fluctuations, the production and sales of polyester plants are also the focus of the market. Since July, the transaction atmosphere in the polyester filament market has been quite light, especially the panic in the downstream market caused by PTA's once falling limit. Most of the time, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have been operating at a low level. Especially in recent trading days, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have dropped significantly to around 20% to 40%, which really belongs to the low production and sales stage of the year.

From July 3-5, the production and sales of polyester reached 30% to 30%;

From July 8 to 10, the production and sales of polyester reached 30% to 30%;

On July 11, under the strong rise of international oil price and PTA, the production and sales of polyester manufacturers just exceeded 100%. When the market started earlier, the production and sales easily exceeded 100%, or even higher;

From July 12 to 15, the production and sales of polyester reached 30% to 40%;

On July 16, although most mainstream polyester filament manufacturers' quotations declined, the overall production and sales of polyester were still average. The mainstream production and sales were concentrated in 60% to 70%, and most of them were POY heavy volume.

……

3、 Low inventory is "flooded", and inventory alarm sounds again

The low inventory of polyester market was once proud, and the inventory fell to the low level since the Spring Festival, which also supported the steady rise of polyester filament prices to a certain extent. However, with the continuous downturn of polyester mainstream production and marketing, the proud low inventory was gradually "submerged", and the market inventory alarm was sounded again.

From the statistics of China Silk Metropolis, the overall inventory of polyester market has increased slightly to 12-21 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory lasts for 7-11 days, FDY inventory lasts for 12-18 days, and DTY inventory lasts for 20-25 days. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers may further increase.

Whether the price of polyester filament market falls, the production and sales are weak or the inventory is boosted, the key is the lack of cooperation and boost between the upstream and downstream markets.

1、 PTA stepped out of the trend of "climbing" and "diving", forming a certain impact

First of all, it is natural to talk about international oil prices. The ups and downs of crude oil prices have directly hit many market confidence. On June 29, the heads of state of China and the United States met at the G20 Osaka Summit and announced the resumption of negotiations on Sino US trade, bringing benefits to the market; However, since the market believed that the crude oil production reduction agreement was not as expected, the international oil price began to fall sharply by more than 4%. On July 9, the trade negotiations between China and the United States made phased progress. On July 10, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut. In addition to the recent tense situation in Iran, the international oil price rose by more than 4% that day; However, this rally was suppressed again.

Under the influence of fundamentals and capital, PTA futures have also stepped out of the trend of "climbing" and "diving" recently; Another polyester raw material, ethylene glycol, also rose and fell. On July 9, the chemical products suffered a sharp fall across the board, the ethylene glycol limit fell in the late trading, and PTA opened low and went low; On the 10th, PTA and MEG continued to operate at a low level, while near the end of the day, PTA futures had a "sudden change in the style of painting", which suddenly led to a strong rise, which lasted for a short time. On the 12th, PTA futures turned sharply downward, plunged in the middle of the day, and then operated weakly. Affected by futures, the spot market of polyester raw materials in the upstream also experienced ups and downs, which had a certain impact on the polyester filament market.

2、 Weaving manufacturers are not willing to stock up, and the operating rate has declined

It is understood that most weaving manufacturers are indifferent to the rise and fall of raw materials in the recent stage, and are not eager to sell. In the early stage, most weaving manufacturers have stocked up goods for a month. In the early stage of construction, weaving manufacturers can maintain normal production for at least half a month without replenishment.

On the other hand, it is reported that the inventory of textile enterprises in northern Jiangsu and central and western regions is generally about 2 months. Under the pressure of inventory, many textile manufacturers are undertaking production reduction and holidays recently. In July, the operating rate of the weaving market has declined, among which the operating rate of major clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has also declined. At present, the operating rate of water jet looms is about 80%; Warp knitting machine rate is above 50%; The operating rate of circular machines dropped to about 50%, and the operating load decreased by 17 percentage points month on month compared with the previous month. The manufacturers' enthusiasm for production was obviously frustrated.

The "summer vacation" effect brought by the reduction and shutdown of weaving manufacturers may reduce the demand for raw materials to some extent; It is reported that polyester manufacturers have also taken maintenance and other actions in recent stages, which may alleviate the corresponding inventory pressure. In order to better and orderly development of the textile market, we hope that both polyester manufacturers and weaving manufacturers can maintain stable operation and reduce speculation and speculation!